Mortality analysis as an indicator of when the covid-19 pandemic will end in Mexico

We know that each country has its own procedures for how and when to report covid-19 cases. It was established that the Epidemiological Reference Institute (InDRE) would be the only institution in charge of the analysis of samples, but after a week the training began so that state laboratories can carry out the tests, so the tests are carried out by the state and in turn report to InDRE. Due to this, confirmed cases are a small percentage of real cases.

On the other hand, at the beginning of the epidemic, fewer tests were carried out than 6 months later, for example in CDMX, service kiosks have been installed in high-impact neighborhoods where large numbers of people are tested, so the intensity of the epidemic has been measured differently.

There is a way to measure the intensity of the epidemic with the number of deaths registered by covid-19, since each death requires a death certificate.

In the image we see that in Mexico there is a downward trend in mortality, with maximums, minimums and average, which we are going to place an asymptote where they will project the days when the epidemic will end or reduce its intensity.

Thus we can see that following this model, the epidemic in Mexico will end between February and May 2021.

In conclusion, the epidemic has lost strength in Mexico, however we cannot predict whether or not there will be a regrowth and it will have results such as increased mortality. We can add that there are already proven treatments that work against COVID-19 and that the vaccine will be available to the entire population in a few months, so everything indicates that in mid-2021 we can begin to think about the end of the pandemic.

Author: analyticaus

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