🏥 Covid-19 in Mexico City: projection of an epidemic

UPDATE AUGUST 10

Mexico as of August 10, 2020 has 485,836 confirmed cases and 53 thousand deaths. The pandemic is currently concentrated in the American continent, with the United States and Brazil being the countries with the highest infections.

The projections that are presented indicate that there is a decrease in the number of confirmed cases in the last two weeks, so it is assumed that the epidemic in Mexico is going down. Following the trend and taking the correlation coefficient greater than 95% indicates that September and October will go to a yellow traffic light and that by November 1 we will have green traffic lights in most of the country. All of the above depends a lot on the behavior of the population and the use of mouth covers and all the recommended sanitation measures.

We also project for that date, November 1, a total of 750,000 confirmed cases and 80,000 deaths with a correlation coefficient greater than 95%

MAY 2020

Mexico City is one of the epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic of the American continent. The contagion curve for the last week of May remains at its peak. However, mathematical projections indicate that from the month of June it will begin its decline while other cities on the continent and in the Mexican country itself will begin its growth. The 60 days that the confinement takes in Mexico and part of its population demands the return of non-essential activities to reactivate the national economy. On Monday June 1st the “healthy distance day” will end and the new program of colored traffic lights that indicate the activity of the regionalized epidemic will be activated. The first image shows that in Mexico City it will be returning to the “new normal” at the end of June.

While in the second image it is shown that the country until July measured.

There is no doubt that in contrast to European countries, in American countries such as Brazil, Canada, the USA and Mexico, the epidemic is regionalized and each group or region has its own epidemic curve.

Author: analyticaus

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